Energy Bureau | Seven Thoughts on Key Issues in China's "Fourteenth Five-Year" Energy Development Plan
Release Date: 2019-12-19
At the annual meeting of the 2019 Energy Research Conference held on December 4, Li Fulong, director of the Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, put forward seven points on the key issues of China ’s “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” energy development plan . At the same time, the overall energy plan is promoted: including six classified plans for coal, electricity, oil and gas, renewable energy, technological innovation, and the system at the national level, and energy planning for 31 provinces, municipalities, and Xinjiang Corps.
Director Li Fulong's seven points on the key issues of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" energy development plan:
I. The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan is a crucial five-year planning period
The periodical characteristics of economic and energy development can be summarized as "four periods", which are: the period of undertaking two hundred-year strategic goals, the period of undertaking two non-fossil targets, the period of structural transformation of incremental energy consumption, The peak appears or is approaching.
Li Fulong said that in the next 10-15 years, at least four peak plateau periods will occur in succession, and the balance between supply and demand must consider the carbon neutrality of fossil energy before 2030.
2. Energy consumption will continue to grow
In the future, China's total energy consumption will continue to grow, the decline in energy consumption per unit of GDP will narrow, and the growth rate of energy consumption will slow down.
The major factors driving the growth of energy consumption have undergone profound changes. Among the basic factors, GDP growth and secondary production still account for a considerable proportion (added value accounted for 40.7%, energy consumption accounted for 65%, and electricity consumption accounted for 69% in 2018), but structural factors showed different characteristics:
New kinetic energy: emerging industries such as high-end manufacturing and information industries are booming;
Tertiary industry and residents 'energy use: Rural revitalization strategy and new urbanization have been implemented in depth, and residents' living standards have continued to improve;
Environmental governance: The demand for clean energy such as electricity and natural gas has increased.
3. The law of energy consumption growth needs in-depth research
。 The characteristics of China's economic and social development have determined that the law of energy consumption growth cannot directly copy foreign experience .
China is the country with the most complete industrial chain in the world. There is no ready-made model for energy consumption laws. One is that the era of modernization is very different, and the other is that consumption habits are very different from foreign countries. The impact of climate (temperature) has become an important factor in fluctuating energy demand (the maximum cooling load in summer in North China, Central China and East China accounts for 30% -50% of the maximum load).
Fourth, the regional supply and demand contradiction cannot be ignored
Regional contradictions: the reverse distribution of energy resources and consumption, the overall structure will not change in the short term, the energy self-sufficiency rate in the central and eastern regions needs to be improved, and the energy distribution and flow needs to be optimized.
Periodic contradictions: The peak and valley differences in the load of electricity and natural gas continue to expand, and the duration of more than 95% of the maximum power load is generally less than 24 hours. During low load periods, the problem of clean energy consumption is prominent; during peak load periods, the pressure on supply security increases.
How to reasonably arrange the production capacity construction and operation adjustment, and to coordinate the supply guarantee and system efficiency is one of the outstanding issues in the 14th Five-Year Plan.
V. Short board and risks are still outstanding
Shortcomings of oil and gas resources: Oil and gas resources have always been one of the main shortcomings of China's energy security, and foreign dependence on oil and natural gas has continued to increase.
System operation safety short board: Some key technologies are still first. Chips, software, and control systems rely on imports, and the problem of "stuck neck" is prominent.
In addition, there are other related issues, such as how the grid responds to large-scale power outages, and system security risks are gradually becoming apparent.
6. Focus on new breakthroughs in five areas
1. Make efforts to strengthen the safety short board: supply security, operation security, technical security.
2. Focus on promoting a clean and low-carbon transition: expand the clean energy industry and promote the clean and efficient use of coal.
3. Focus on building an intelligent and efficient energy system: demand-side management, peak shaving capacity building, and smart energy system building.
4. Efforts to promote the open and development of energy innovation: scientific and technological innovation, institutional reform, and international cooperation.
5. Focus on improving the well-being of energy and people's livelihood: enhance the universal service capacity of energy and meet the diverse energy needs of electricity, gas and heat.
Seven, focus on the key joint efforts
1. Grasp an important period: now to June next year.
2. The two fronts simultaneously advance the overall energy plan: including the six classified plans for coal, power, oil and gas, renewable energy, technological innovation, and the system at the national level, and the energy plans for 31 provinces, municipalities, and Xinjiang Corps.
3. Highlight four important tasks: Calculate the increase, get the plan, engage in comparison and selection, and propose measures.
。 4. Efforts to answer two questions: basic questions, supply and demand balance and protection; the requirements of the times, building a smart energy system .
Reprinted from: 14th Five-Year Plan Information Network